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Mark LaFountain

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Dodging it while the hospital beds are in over demand is a good idea.  China has nearly stopped it.  Regrettably the western world can't do what China did.  NY is about to get fucked up.

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1 hour ago, ///M5 said:

Dodging it while the hospital beds are in over demand is a good idea.  China has nearly stopped it.  Regrettably the western world can't do what China did.  NY is about to get fucked up.

Personally I don't think it's as cleaned up I  china as they say and I really think that the majority of that is that it will spread through a crazy amount t of the population without any symptoms at all. It is really most likely they have saturated and its mutated or mutatting now. 

 

I havent read anything that I would trust confirming it but that is what the best math out there says right now. So I go with that. 

I cannot find anything anywhere that shows anything other nearly everyone getting exposed at this point. I would love to see otherwise but that's not anything that I have seen anywhere. 

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The primary and most talked about problematic issue with this virus is the fact that such a large population feel no symptoms at all, and most feel nothing for weeks. 

Toothpaste is put of the tube. 

We have to clean it up, not get it back in the tube. 

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This is pretty damn cool. It explains why people are giving conflicting numbers and a bit about how they get there. 

 

 

 

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First failure in making bread in >40 loaves. 

 

I got ambitious with my sprouted rye ratio and it went from dough into a kilo of starter. I could have rescued it into something but I was having myself a proper fit about it and didn't like how the product would have turned out anyway. 

 

Still. Sad to see such a sexy productgo to waste

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I have a colleague that lives in Wuhan.  They don't see shit for cases anymore.  His boss is in Shanghai and they take precautions but neither see any evidence of propagation.  They completely isolated the whole country and locked it down though

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I don't trust Chinese news but I do trust colleagues and South Korean news.  Singapore as well.  All of those spaces test the fuck out of anything though and we seem too stupid to do that

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The math models severely underestimate the human response to stay alive

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We just got put on the same level as California, Washington and New York. They issued a state wide stay at home order until April 13th, for anything non essential. In other words it’s a fuck show.

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Ours starts Friday

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5 hours ago, ///M5 said:

I have a colleague that lives in Wuhan.  They don't see shit for cases anymore.  His boss is in Shanghai and they take precautions but neither see any evidence of propagation.  They completely isolated the whole country and locked it down though

No symptoms is maybe the most common symptom. Are they mass testing people with no symptoms?

 

I believe what you are telling me.  Every projection says that's not possible. So we are missing a variable or we do not understand the virus. I'm not going to be hopeful until I can be told why it stopped. 

 

As for cleaning use this. I just watched a youtube video about how to clean your groceries and in one day the info was made unusable because the CDC has changed their surface recommendations. they are extending the expected life on different surfaces and noting that its mutating faster than the flu. 

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5 hours ago, ///M5 said:

I don't trust Chinese news but I do trust colleagues and South Korean news.  Singapore as well.  All of those spaces test the fuck out of anything though and we seem too stupid to do that

I trust people more than the math too Sean. But I'm not going to lie either. Every model shows it doing its thing. 

 

Here is the CDC cleaning guidelines. pleasesont useanything you seen youtube or the news even of it's good intentioned. They dont understand what's going on. 

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5 hours ago, ///M5 said:

The math models severely underestimate the human response to stay alive

You're speaking out of your place. 

 

No one is washing their hands and having a desire and will to live doesnt help. People did something medically or not. If they did, China isnt sharing. Maybe they did mass antiviral naughty stuff. Who knows. 

 

I didnt say it stopped I said no one on the planet who expected the virus or has been right so far expected it to stop. 

If everyone in your industry told you something about the industry would you trust fox news and ya boys on the street or the people doing the work?

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I'm afraid of night diving. 

 

But if I did it every day I would be mor comfortable with the risks. 

 

All of you just got pushed underwater at midnight and you're more likely to kill yourself from panic than anything in the ocean coming out to get you. 

 

It's scary AF and we are all worried about our family. 

 

Stop watching the news. They are all wrong. Yes even YOUR GUY.

 

The best minds in the world have changed their opinion on this virus many times in the last 4 months and >100 full white papers on just this disease in multiple languages and governments.  Comping and recommending is hard. MSNBC and FOX or whomever do not care about you.  At all. They want you to watch. 

 

Like usual the real science is boring. The news is trying to get you excited and it's working. 

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Posted (edited)

In one day this grocery cleaning video got over .5% of our popu6to flow along. 

In one day his entire premise about how long covid stays on surfaces was busted hard. Now there is a note at the bottom correcting the info but it makes the entire video pointless. 

 

We do not know how long and onto what it sticks. That isnt known. The recommendations came in, but that's just it  no one followed them,its mutating daily, and how we are trying to deal with it is wrong..

 

Find out how it stopped in China if it did. 

 

:opens news to: second wave in HK and Japan.

 

:-(

Edited by dem beats

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This version of social distancing is not so good. 

We should have done better. 

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6 hours ago, j-roadtatts said:

We just got put on the same level as California, Washington and New York. They issued a state wide stay at home order until April 13th, for anything non essential. In other words it’s a fuck show.

How the fuck Florida has not done a REAL stay at home order is beyond me. We have 'Safer at home' in some counties, but nothing making people stay there. People can still go wherever they want for a variety of reasons. Anyone coming from NY or NJ is ASKED to 'self-quarantine' for 15 days, but it's not mandatory. Beaches are 'closed' but there are tons of loopholes there too. It's a gigantic shitshow for us.

J

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8 hours ago, ///M5 said:

I don't trust Chinese news but I do trust colleagues and South Korean news.  Singapore as well.  All of those spaces test the fuck out of anything though and we seem too stupid to do that

I wouldn't trust most of the news either. Colleagues are the best sources of information IMO. I know from talking to guys I served with who are in South Korea and Japan that those countries are taking shit seriously and taking any and all appropriate precautions. It seems like here it's more of a question about what they can get for their efforts as opposed to what is best for mankind as a whole.

J

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J the stay at home thing doesnt effect the modeling very much at this point. I am in the camp that it might hurt. But that's pretty flimsy. 

If it does happen from this point forward it's because of political or possible infrastructure problems. 

 

The stay at home thing is not intended to slow the spread of this virus. I think that might be the problem. Staying at home doesnt slow the spread of the virus too much but it may have an impact on the medical community. 

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3 times a day large health groups are being updated. There is usually about 5 pages each release discussing CHANGES from previous versions of modeling and new guidelines.

 

Including how otherwise sterile exposed surfaces can now have the virus up to 17 days. Moist aurfaces or any sealed packages should now be considered as dirty side if you're trying to do the clean side dirty side thing. 

 

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Posted (edited)

I'm being a bit of a dick.   It means I love yall, and I'm probably just hurt more by this than most. 

 

Here is a resource that is much easier to consume than the CDC white papers and so on and will give you information way closer to what we know and dont know that almost anywhere. 

Not that I should have to Qualify but my roomate when in national security classes for his masters had this guy as a prof teaching about this exactlind of outbreak. My roomate modeled redvs blue teams for his degree using pub health information that this guy is basically the most informed in the world. I have got to see him speak. 

He is also not correct 100% of the time and I dodnt readhis book. He may be a scientologist for all I know but in context to what you need to know, this is better than all the news sources I have seen.  Combined. 

 

And at least you dont have to read the white papers and fall asleep and you dont have to trust me. 

 

Fill your brain with this if you have to spend time thinking about viruses for a while. 

 

Edited by dem beats

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I've found no reliable sources showing mutation proof or reasonings behind...or info on surface staying length beyond 3 days.  Not saying it isn't there but if it is I would like to read it.

The most logical possibiliity is that it has been around for a bit, people have died under the guise of the flu, and then it gets publicized and the more we test really sick the more the really sick die.  Places that test more show lower death rates than those that test less.  Numbers skewed by non-synergized testing choices.  I know a ton of people that had bad colds this winter...

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The mutation portion should be well publicized as that community shares openly.

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I should add the word harmful in front of mutation.  Nothing reproduces identically.

 

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One other fact also is interesting to me.  SUPER contagious, but on a cruise ship that was locked down 691 out of 3600 tested positive.  ~20% rate of infection in about the worst possible way of containment.  Hold up the virus in a big tube with a bunch of people in the tube.  Tells me that the worldwide infection rate must end up being lower.  Not sure how any mathematician or disease guru could state differently unless of course the other 80% already had it earlier in the year.

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