Anyone care to look into the crystal ball and tell me where we will be at in 5+ years for subwoofers?

Back Story:

I own a near mint 10w7 and a 13w7 in pro wedge box. I'm deciding on selling a lot of my equipment (locally) because I've upgraded (Crescendo 3500) BUT I KNOW in about 5 years time, when I buy a different car, I will be "starting over" and probably starting small - 1k setup.

And because I'm nearly giving this stuff away, I'm beginning to wonder, do I store it and use it 5 years from now because I'm saving a few hundred dollars ... or get rid of it, even at a few hundred-dollars loss in hopes that equipment is going to be EVEN BETTER in 5+ years?

Besides my issue, I'm really wondering, are we all going neo-magnets ... I see DD has come with a new spider structure, 4" as well for 2012 ... other manufacturers to follow?

With the success of SSA, they are always re-inventing themselves it seems ... same with Sundown Audio ...

YouTube sensation MTX (Thanks Steve Meade) is changing the industry (I feel) ...

THOUGHTS???

Nothing has changed in the past 5 years so why would you expect differently going forward?

But has nothing changed?

Doesn't feel like the "same old boys club" when it comes to who's on top and who isn't ...

MTX has been resurrected from the dead (IMO), I'm sure they have Top Sales for 2010-2012 if anyone is tracking.

The fact that manufacturers are not only thinking about neo-magnets, but some are actually selling them on mass now ...

The death of some major brands these past few years ...

I mean, we're definitely not a stale period of time, there's a lot going on.

Are we talking subwoofer politics or subwoofer technology?

I doubt there will be any major breakthroughs in the next five years. I think most of the parts on the W7 haven't changed in ~10+ years if that tells you anything.

Are we talking subwoofer politics or subwoofer technology?

I'm more concerned about the technology.

Like I said, I have near-new equipment. I'm debating whether I keep it for the "one day" which I know will come or just get rid of it and start fresh when I'm ready ...

I'm actually torn. I don't need the money at this very moment so it sitting is not a big deal.

I doubt there will be any major breakthroughs in the next five years. I think most of the parts on the W7 haven't changed in ~10+ years if that tells you anything.

Yeah I know ... I almost wrote that in the original comment. Everyone is moving, except for JL. They keep going back to the same old, same old. Now, same package, different colour. I'm a fan of good technology, just necessarily a JL fan. I'm upgrading to SSA as we speak so ... not a JL fan boy to the death like some.

Edited August 1, 201213 yr by DaVibe

The youtube effect is only bringing down the industry in my opinion. More and more people are being exposed to more products, while at the same time, the market segment who is growing the fastest, is the youngest group. They are on average, the least experienced, who have not learned the real value of testing/research/specs/enclosure design etc. in terms of planing out a system that is best for their needs. Also, they have the least amount of money and patients, along with being much more swayed by 'show' and less by 'go'.

Now, what does all this mean? Well looking at the aftermarket audio scene, there are far more vehicles with aftermarket stereos then 5 years ago greatly due to the explosion of the youngest group of customers. So why are the Brax's/Gensis' of the world in trouble or out of the market like Eclipse, and why are other high end brands like Zapco for example, vastly expanding entry products? In my firm opinion it is supremely effected by those who only care about (read: can only see) the cheapest price possible and 'if lighting stuck' simple marketing figures. In one way, this has really expanded the market, but at the same time, hurt the market.

The race to the bottom is much faster then the race for superior quality and performance (race to the top). In other words, quality is losing badly to quantity. Something many can easily see and effect of this is the drastic reduction of individual designs or ground breaking new technology. In other words, the General Motors philosophy, let someone else do the engineering cheap off shore, and slap multiple different brand logo's on the same thing. This makes much of the game a lot more about marketing and a lot less about engineering.

You can make the case for material and part costs going up, but that is not enough to counter act the way the market demand is shifting. This is my opinion, but I have been in the industry since the mid-90's and it has changed drastically and I strongly feel quality as gone down a noticeable amount, on average across the industry.

Edit: In terms of JL, I like a number of their products, but let's take a moment to think about where they have shifted their efforts, especially in terms of money. JL has a very high capability in terms of engineering and design, much of this is due to how much they invested in their facilities here in the USA. Since then, JL has done mega amounts of marketing and outside of the small format class-D amps and maybe the shallow sub, they have not released too much that is earth shattering or marketing swinging in a while.

Edited August 1, 201213 yr by Aaron Clinton

Modding a new car is becoming harder and harder. If audio companies don't know how to combat this (like products that work with the existing head unit or mobile phone devices), it will be the death of them. People are not going to mess up their beautifully integrated Ford, Chevrolet or Honda dash to try and put a non-matching single or double din.

This is becoming more and more of a problem IMO.

I hear what you're saying about the YouTube phenomena. But I think the market (and the sport) needs more interest - period, however it comes. You start with a crappy walmart system and move your way up. I think a good example of this is Exo. This is NOT your typical "audio guy" ... skateboarding, kinda nerdy ... but yet, he started with the Walmart system (literally) and has moved up along the way to bigger and greater things. Now he has various sponsors.

I don't have a problem with people getting into the scene with bad equipment, but I see (and probably agree) that BETTER companies might lose out.

The only thing they can do is tell us why their product is better and we as consumers gotta buy into it.

Modding a new car is becoming harder and harder. If audio companies don't know how to combat this (like products that work with the existing head unit or mobile phone devices), it will be the death of them. People are not going to mess up their beautifully integrated Ford, Chevrolet or Honda dash to try and put a non-matching single or double din.

This is becoming more and more of a problem IMO.

I hear what you're saying about the YouTube phenomena. But I think the market (and the sport) needs more interest - period, however it comes. You start with a crappy walmart system and move your way up. I think a good example of this is Exo. This is NOT your typical "audio guy" ... skateboarding, kinda nerdy ... but yet, he started with the Walmart system (literally) and has moved up along the way to bigger and greater things. Now he has various sponsors.

I don't have a problem with people getting into the scene with bad equipment, but I see (and probably agree) that BETTER companies might lose out.

The only thing they can do is tell us why their product is better and we as consumers gotta buy into it.

Good point, but how did EXO get better products? Youtube and all the inexperienced kids that follow him. Also, there are plenty of companies doing LOC's or simple plug and play add-on systems. But, the average car audio person that is going to be doing a sizable upgrade to their system, usually is not doing it in a car that has fully integrated audio/HVAC arrangements.

The shallow sub is a huge market. Again, OEM integration ... the market that wants something more, that doesn't want to sacrifice what they have (the deck, the trunk space).

This is HUGE and as a guy who use to valet cars, I see more stealth installs than actual big-bang installs that you see on YouTube. Those are few and far.

So I think if we can conclude anything, the better subwoofer companies need to know their market. Keep the company growing but don't expand too much, the market you have is a small percentage and not looking to expand any time soon ...

They probably think differently though ...

Couldn't agree more Aaron. I've been in the car audio game for almost ten years now (not a very long time compared to some) and I have never seen so many shitty products coming and going as there are now.

I agree with Aaron 100%..

I just want to add this.

With the low cost of China products you will see an increase of "online" based companies with very similar product. While this has been the recent trend already, it is in fact, going to get worse. The cost to have subs OEMed in china is crazy cheap even after shipping...this means that kids with student loans will be trying their hardest to have "their own" company.

So let me ask this: Are the products from China as good?

Should we give credit where credit is due? Do the American companies have to take notice?

Or is this a warning of sub-par products to come?

I thought a lot of parts were already manufactured from China ... so why not the entire product?

China is "ok" for parts. I have about 30 prototypes sitting here for myself and other companies and I find several faults all the time, mainly with the poor QC but the part quality is an issue as well.

While companies like SA and a few others have found a way to work around those short comings, they are still there regardless and will limit what they can do. There is a reason why the better drivers from SA is assembled here in the states with better parts, glue, and much better QC.

Overall I think if you work the system right you can take advantage of China and their prices, but mainly if you are only looking to get into the "I'm cheaper then you" situation and win out buyers. SA is one of the odd ball situations where he has been successful with his product while being built over there. I would guess it has more to do with his willingness to spend a few bucks to have custom tooling done to ensure he gets the results he wants even when limited by their part quality.

So in short yes, the parts are "OK" and can be worked around. However, the vast majority of these pop up companies will be off the shelf items or even direct copies in some cases. That means they will not have much working for them other then a cheap price.

My crystal ball says it will continue to be a hoarde of 'look what i can do' and 'oh ME TOO' people.

..innovation..not much, the industry can barely handle/tolerate what's currently on the market as-is.

what's better?

6 18s or 74.5 5.25" co-axials?

Edited August 1, 201213 yr by shizzzon

But has nothing changed?

Doesn't feel like the "same old boys club" when it comes to who's on top and who isn't ...

MTX has been resurrected from the dead (IMO), I'm sure they have Top Sales for 2010-2012 if anyone is tracking.

The fact that manufacturers are not only thinking about neo-magnets, but some are actually selling them on mass now ...

The death of some major brands these past few years ...

I mean, we're definitely not a stale period of time, there's a lot going on.

Nothing in that was related to technology which hasn't changed and won't be.

..innovation..not much

Exactly.

My crystal ball says it will continue to be a hoarde of 'look what i can do' and 'oh ME TOO' people.

..innovation..not much, the industry can barely handle/tolerate what's currently on the market as-is.

The market is flooded with knock-off/straight rebadged drivers or drivers stolen from other companies and taken to China where production costs are cheaper, which drives down the cost of products across the board in order to be competitive in the market. This makes any real innovation cost prohibitive as the end product will simply be too expensive compared to the knock-off/Chinese products in the market.

The only realistic difference between subwoofers now and subwoofers in 5 years is that the market will continue to be dragged down towards cheaper and lower quality products.

That was a long winded way of saying: Agreed.

I think a good example of this is Exo.

No idea who that is.

With the low cost of China products you will see an increase of "online" based companies with very similar product. While this has been the recent trend already, it is in fact, going to get worse. The cost to have subs OEMed in china is crazy cheap even after shipping...this means that kids with student loans will be trying their hardest to have "their own" company.

The number of "internet companies" springing up is simply outrageous. It's actually sad to see that the "internet company" genre has gone from a provider of quality built, well performing and differentiated products priced below mass-market competition to any random kid (literally) with a user account on a popular internet forum and enough $$ (typically from mommy and daddy) to meet minimum order quantities from an overseas build house and buy ad space on the major forums. I've stopped trying to keep track of or care about any "internet company" started within the past 5 years. There's too many to keep track of, they go under far too quickly to remember who's still in business, and their products are such cheap overseas lack-luster carbon copies to even give a shit about them to begin with.

It's unfortunately more about who can generate the most nuthuggers and who has the most friends modding forums to delete negative comments/reviews/issues rather than quality, performance and product differentiation. This isn't just subwoofers, but every car audio product from wiring to deadening to amplifiers and everything in between.

That is another long winded way of saying: Agreed.

China is "ok" for parts. I have about 30 prototypes sitting here for myself and other companies and I find several faults all the time, mainly with the poor QC but the part quality is an issue as well.

Funny thing about any OEM, and China is no exception here, quality and quality control are only as good as you're willing to pay for.

Good drivers now are still going to be good drivers in a few years. As has been mentioned, the primary change in the market is going to be a continuation in the trend of more and more cheap drivers, more and more SPL drivers and fewer and fewer high fidelity drivers. High fidelity drivers will continue to command a premium price as well.

Here's my take...basically, other than better designs in cooling, stiffer suspensions and more excursion in drivers, there really won't be much change in drivers in five years, just like there hasn't been in the past. It's a trade off really. In the 90's, you had efficient drivers in sealed boxes that would perform best with 300-700 watts each....fast forward to now....there is more power handling, but efficiency has dropped. In comes more drivers specifically designed to work in ported boxes to make up for it. Neither is "better" really, but with amplifier power being so cheap these days compared to the old days it's necessary to make subs handle more now.

As far as companies like JL, they seem to only come out with something different when it is REALLY different, IMO. The other thing with them, it seems they are just starting to move their focus more toward the high-end home theater crowd, which is probably a good move for them. I'm sure like everyone here, they see the race to the bottom and know they can't (or don't want to) compete with stuff built overseas. Anything they do with cars is going to be leaning toward the SQ crowd I think.

As far as the internet companies, it's going to be all about customer service, performance, and reliability that helps make one stand out over another. Companies like Sundown, SSA, DC and the like have built up a fan base that helps keep them relevant. I just hope most of them keep their lower lines at a good price point but still quality, rather than just looking at price. In the long run, that is what will help keep companies going, rather than just the $500-700 subs I believe.

Edited August 1, 201213 yr by Micksh

China is "ok" for parts. I have about 30 prototypes sitting here for myself and other companies and I find several faults all the time, mainly with the poor QC but the part quality is an issue as well.

Funny thing about any OEM, and China is no exception here, quality and quality control are only as good as you're willing to pay for.

Good drivers now are still going to be good drivers in a few years. As has been mentioned, the primary change in the market is going to be a continuation in the trend of more and more cheap drivers, more and more SPL drivers and fewer and fewer high fidelity drivers. High fidelity drivers will continue to command a premium price as well.

x2

Here's my take...basically, other than better designs in cooling, stiffer suspensions and more excursion in drivers,

Umm, no. Basically that has already been done. It'll take a quantum leap of sorts to really bring any improvement and for the OP that won't matter anyways as what he has is already more than fine.

China is "ok" for parts. I have about 30 prototypes sitting here for myself and other companies and I find several faults all the time, mainly with the poor QC but the part quality is an issue as well.

Funny thing about any OEM, and China is no exception here, quality and quality control are only as good as you're willing to pay for.

Good drivers now are still going to be good drivers in a few years. As has been mentioned, the primary change in the market is going to be a continuation in the trend of more and more cheap drivers, more and more SPL drivers and fewer and fewer high fidelity drivers. High fidelity drivers will continue to command a premium price as well.

I agree that when using an OEM in the states you have to pay more for better QC, but in China the general practice is they charge you for better QC but do not actually do anything different. Through some of my former employers we tried these tactics in China and found that it was truly a waste of money to pay for QC. I told them it was a waste being in China..but meh...to each their own I suppose.

If you specify the acceptable reject rate in the OEM contract, it quickly becomes in their financial best interest to provide an increased level of quality and QC. They had some real growing pains in this regard originally, but the established OEMs that work with the bigger western companies have it figured out at this point. The smaller manufacturers over there still haven't quite got it right, but the cheapskates over here will keep them in business regardless.